Peotone Weather

National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

Updated: Tue, 14-Jan-2025 2:27pm CST

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Peotone, IL

This Afternoon Sunny Wednesday Sunny Thursday Slight Chance Snow then Mostly Cloudy Friday Mostly Sunny Saturday Mostly Cloudy Sunday Partly Sunny M.L. King Jr. Day Mostly Sunny   Hi 17 °F Hi 17 °F Hi 33 °F Hi 36 °F Hi 30 °F Hi 12 °F Hi 6 °F     Tonight Clear Wednesday Night Mostly Cloudy then Chance Snow Thursday Night Mostly Cloudy Friday Night Chance Rain then Chance Rain And Snow Saturday Night Mostly Cloudy Sunday Night Partly Cloudy Monday Night Partly Cloudy   Lo -3 °F Lo 12 °F Lo 20 °F Lo 27 °F Lo 8 °F Lo -4 °F Lo -5 °F

Hydrologic Outlook
 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL.

111
FXUS63 KLOT 142115
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
315 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of light snow is possible Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning, which may result in slippery travel.

- A storm system may bring a mix of rain and snow to the
  general region in the late Friday through early Sunday
  timeframe.

- After a brief late week warm-up, another push of Arctic air
  will arrive over the weekend. Temperatures early next week
  may be the coldest thus far of the winter season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Through Thursday:

A surface high pressure centered over western Iowa will drift
to southern Indiana by Wednesday afternoon as a weak mid-level
ridge traverses broader WNW flow aloft. With expected light
winds, clear skies, and a fresh fluffy snow cover, conditions
will be conducive for efficient radiational cooling tonight.
Lowered forecast low temps by several degrees by hedging toward
some of the coldest guidance, with sub-zero temps likely for
most areas away from the core of the Chicago metro. With winds
expected to mostly decouple overnight, wind chill values should
only fall to around -10F or slightly lower early Wednesday
morning.

Plenty of sunshine is in store for much of the day Wednesday,
though upper-level cloud cover will begin to filter over the
area by sunset. As temps slightly moderate to the upper teens
and low 20s, WSW winds will gust to 20 mph during the afternoon
on the back edge of the departing high.

A subtle mid-level disturbance over southern Saskatchewan and a
more potent mid-level trough over northern Saskatchewan
Wednesday morning will gradually phase into an amplifying trough
across the western Great Lakes by Thursday morning. An enhanced
axis of forcing on the northern periphery of a stacked
mid/upper-level speed max along and ahead of the trough axis
will interact with a ribbon of relatively higher mid-level
moisture across the western Great Lakes later Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. While the strongest mid-level forcing
with the core of the trough will remain northeast of the area,
saturation should grow sufficiently deep to support a band of
light snow extending as far southwest as northeast Illinois.
Decent mid-level lapse rates will briefly align with the deeper
saturation, including some of the DGZ, such that embedded higher
rates are possible with the axis of snow. But given an overall
poor moisture profile this far southwest, accumulations across
northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana should be under a
half inch.

Deeper mid-level moisture will exit to the southeast behind the
trough by mid-morning Thursday, leaving behind a period of
lingering stratus and perhaps patches of light snow and/or
freezing drizzle into the early afternoon.

Kluber


Thursday Night through Tuesday:

Upper-level longwave troughing over the Great Lakes will
finally give way to an upper-level ridge Thursday night into
Friday. With skies likely becoming sunnier and winds turning
southwesterly and becoming gusty on Friday in response to a low
pressure system tracking across Manitoba and Ontario,
temperatures on Friday should climb to near or slightly in
excess of 40 degrees across northwestern portions of our
forecast area, where little to no snow cover is expected to be
present. Farther to the south and southeast in our CWA, the
increased albedo from the presence of a light snowpack and warm
air advection being muted to a greater degree by the upstream
presence of a deeper snowpack across central Illinois should
keep temperatures cooler, with highs looking like they`ll end up
in the mid-upper 30s there. Temperatures should remain in the
30s Friday evening before falling behind a cold front overnight.
Winds will also turn north-northwesterly and become blustrier
behind this front going into Saturday.

Precipitation chances for late Friday into Saturday continue to
hinge on how two upper-level disturbances -- a northern stream
trough approaching the Gulf of Alaska and a cut-off low that is
now a few hundred miles off of the southwest California coast --
will interact over the CONUS late this week after the Rex block
consisting of the latter feature breaks down. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance continues to suggest that these two waves
will not phase optimally, but will still likely help foster the
development of stratiform precipitation in the lower Midwest as
they close in on each other.

At least our southeastern counties still appear to be somewhat
well-positioned to see some of this precipitation Friday night
into Saturday, but there is still a non-trivial amount of
spread in ensemble guidance regarding how far northwest this
precipitation will extend, along with how quickly it will
blossom. Just slight differences in where and when the two
aforementioned waves begin to interact could shift the
precipitation by over 100 miles one way or the other, so will
continue to ride with the PoPs offered up by the NBM, which
advertise slight chances for precipitation across our far
northwest, likely probabilities across our far southeast, and
chance probabilities everywhere else. Should also note that most
EPS and GEFS members have lake effect QPF output over the
weekend as the northern stream wave unleashes a colder air mass
into the Great Lakes, though whether any of this will get into
our forecast area will depend on how the upper-level wave
interaction and the associated response at the surface plays
out on Friday and Saturday.

Regarding precipitation types... the milder temperatures that
will be in place on Friday could allow for both rain and/or snow
to be observed wherever precipitation falls Friday night into
Saturday. Based on our current NBM-based temperature forecast,
rain would be most likely to occur earlier on in this
precipitation event before the arrival of colder air
temperatures and/or dynamic cooling of the tropospheric column
allows for snow to be more likely to be seen as a precipitation
type later on. Any lake effect precipitation that occurs on
Saturday or Sunday would be likely to fall as snow with the
entirety of the tropospheric column likely to be below freezing
by that time.

Regardless of whether or not we see any precipitation Friday
into the weekend, confidence is high that our short-lived warm-
up will come to an abrupt end over the weekend with the arrival
of our next air mass of Arctic origin. Many areas, including
those with little to no snow on the ground, could see sub-zero
air temperatures on Sunday night and again on Monday night,
which look to be the coldest nights of this upcoming Arctic
intrusion. If winds end up matching or exceeding what the latest
NBM spit out (which seems more likely than not given the cold
air advection regime that we`ll be in and that the latest
version of the NBM tends to be low biased with its winds), then
we`ll be looking at potential Cold Weather Advisory issuances
during this time frame as we get closer. This renewed period of
frigid temperatures will also likely lead to an increased
threat for ice jams on area rivers next week.

Ogorek

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

No significant aviation concerns for the 18Z TAFs.

Snow has exited the region to the southeast as of late morning,
with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Breezy northwest flow with winds gusting 20-25 kts will
diminish quickly after sunset this evening, and gradually back
to southwest at less than 10 kts (likely 5 kt or less later on)
overnight. Southwest winds will become a bit breezy again
Wednesday with gusts 15-20 kt developing by late morning, and
potentially some stronger gusts into the mid-20 kt range
toward/during Wednesday evening (just beyond the end of the
current ORD/MDW forecast). Otherwise, patchy VFR high clouds
will increase especially toward Wednesday evening.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Gary to
     Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion