Peotone Weather

National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL Issued by: National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

Updated: Thu, 19-Jun-2025 12:41pm CDT

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Peotone, IL

Juneteenth Isolated Showers And T-Storms Friday Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Saturday Sunny Sunday Sunny Monday Sunny Tuesday Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Wednesday Chance Showers And T-Storms   Hi 80 °F Hi 83 °F Hi 92 °F Hi 95 °F Hi 95 °F Hi 93 °F Hi 89 °F     Tonight Isolated Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Clear Friday Night Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms then Mostly Clear Saturday Night Mostly Clear Sunday Night Mostly Clear Monday Night Mostly Clear then Slight Chance Showers And T-Storms Tuesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms Wednesday Night Chance Showers And T-Storms   Lo 64 °F Lo 71 °F Lo 74 °F Lo 74 °F Lo 73 °F Lo 71 °F Lo 67 °F

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles SE Peotone, IL.

700
FXUS63 KLOT 191406
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
906 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms end by mid-morning
  today, though could see an isolated storm or two in the
  vicinity of the lake breeze late this afternoon in NE IL and
  NW IN. Additional scattered thunderstorm potential exists
  Friday.

- Stretch of hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat
  indices possibly over 100 degrees this weekend into early next
  week.

- Chances for rain return middle of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Recent satellite imagery depicts clearing skies from northwest
to southeast across the area in the wake of a departing upper-
level shortwave. Current temperatures around 70 will hence be
poised to rise 10 to 15 degrees by this afternoon leading to
highs in the lower 80s.

As a surface high pressure system currently centered near the
KS/MO/OK/AR border regions shifts southeastward this afternoon,
surface winds across the Great Lakes will modestly back
westerly. Meanwhile, winds over Lake Michigan will turn south to
southeasterly in response to the thermal gradient along the
shoreline. The net result should be the development of a low-
level confluence zone along the shoreline. With forecast
soundings depicting largely uncapped temperature profiles by
mid-afternoon, a pocket of dry air above 850mb in tandem with
mid-level subsidence may act to effectively squash any
convective attempts this afternoon. With that said, if any
updraft were to become established, effective shear on the order
of 25 to 30 kt and relatively low freezing levels near 12kft
would encourage storm- scale organization with attendant threats
for gusty winds and hail. At this point, this seems to be a
fairly low- probability scenario (20% chance a storm forms,
followed by a 5% chance it becomes severe, effectively leading
to a 1% joint probability for a severe storm. That`s not zero,
but certainly quite a bit lower than yesterday).

Updated products will be sent soon.

Borchardt

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Through Friday Night:

Early morning GOES vapor imagery depicts a mid-level trough
centered across the western Great Lakes and Midwest. Scattered
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms persisted per regional
radar mosaics, mainly associated with two sheared mid-level
vorticity axes, extending as far west as southwest WI/northwest
IL. These scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to
shift east across the region over the next several hours,
exiting the forecast area by around mid-morning. Guidance
indicates substantial subsidence developing in the wake of the
departing trough this afternoon, with 50-60 meter 500 mb height
rises noted. This, combined with a modest decrease in low-level
moisture, would appear to be at least somewhat unfavorable for
any diurnal convective redevelopment today. However, several
CAMs depict isolated to widely-scattered convective cells during
peak diurnal heating later this afternoon across far northeast
IL and northwest IN, in a region of weak convergence in the
vicinity of a weak lake breeze boundary (which looks to stay
near the IL shore then extend southeast into IN). Even through
forecast soundings do show some subsident warming in the 600-700
mb layer, afternoon thermodynamic profiles suggest little/no
capping with perhaps 500-700 J/kg of MLCAPE for a time. Surface
dew points are likely too high and thus convection likely
overdone in the 4km NAM, ARW and NSSL WRF guidance, though can`t
rule out a couple of isolated late afternoon SHRA/TSRA similar
to the drier HRRR output. Have included a slight (15%) pop
within the aforementioned convergence zone for this late this
afternoon.

Any isolated showers or storms should dissipate quickly by
sunset this evening, with dry and quiet conditions expected
overnight. Well to our northwest however, guidance has trended
more bullish with the development convection across the eastern
Dakotas/Minnesota which several models develop into an organized
MCS. Several CAMs propagate this MCS southeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley early Friday morning, potentially moving into
northwest/northern IL after sunrise in a decaying form. While
confidence is not extremely high in this, did add chance pops
for thunderstorms across northern IL Friday morning. SPC`s Day
1/2 severe outlooks include far northern IL along the southern
periphery of the greater severe threat across MN/WI for this
possibility, with wind the main concern if the MCS were to
maintain itself this far southeast.

If the decaying MCS and/or remnant outflow boundary were to
push into the forecast area Friday, redevelopment of
thunderstorms may occur during the midday/afternoon hours with
diurnal heating. At the same time however, a well-advetised
synoptic upper level ridge begins to build in earnest toward the
Mississippi River Valley. Warming aloft (noted in the 450-650
mb layer in forecast soundings) associated with the development
of the ridge may provide more substantial capping which could
limit the redevelopment of afternoon convection, especially if
the earlier outflow limits surface temps a bit. Have maintained
some slight chance (

NWS LOT Office Area Forecast Discussion